Mexico´s President Strategy Against Trump
By Antonio Ocaranza, CEO of OCA Reputación
President Claudia Sheinbaum has provided glimpses of what appears to be her government’s strategy for addressing decisions that Donald Trump might make once he takes office on January 20, 2025.
On one hand, there is the Plan México, a framework to promote economic growth in a way that is less dependent on international factors. A key component of this plan is the Regional Economic Development and Relocation Advisory Council (CADERR), that aims to coordinate and implement industrial policies that leverage the momentum of nearshoring while fostering industrial clusters across the country, such as the aerospace sector in Querétaro.
Another element is the establishment of a working group to address the revision of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2026. While its full composition is not yet clear, it is expected to be led by Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard, with contributions from Foreign Affairs Secretary Juan Ramón de la Fuente, other government agencies, and private sector representatives, thereby reviving the Adjacent Room, a group entrepreneurs that has supported negotiators in past trade discussions.
Thus far, based on her statements and her recent letter to Donald Trump, President Sheinbaum’s approach can be summarized as follows:
- Cooperation, Not Threats
Collaboration and dialogue should take precedence over threats. The unilateral imposition of tariffs or actions against criminal leaders involved in drugtrafficking to the US undermines the commercial and political relationship and strays from the spirit of coexistence and mutual benefit that underpins the North American trade agreement and binational problem-solving efforts. - Highlighting Mutual Benefits
The presence of Mexican migrants in the U.S. and the bilateral trade relationship generate numerous benefits for the U.S. economy that deserve broader recognition. Actions against migrants or the imposition of tariffs do not benefit the United States. - Impact on the Average Citizen
Tariffs and deteriorating cooperation between Mexico and the U.S. will negatively impact American citizens. For example, Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard estimated that tariffs on vehicles could increase the price of pickup trucks by $3,000 and affect 400,000 workers. Any U.S. tariffs would prompt Mexico to respond with tariffs on sensitive U.S. products, such as meat, grains, fruits, machinery, and technology — particularly from states that support Trump — affecting farmers, workers, and employees. - Engaging Allies
Many industries and companies have a vested interest in fostering a collaborative bilateral relationship. Sheinbaum has already engaged the U.S. automotive industry — mentioning General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis in her letter to Trump — to influence the president elect´s positions. Mexico could extend this outreach to other economic sectors that depend on their value chains in Mexico. - Concrete Actions to Support Her Stance
Words must be backed by actions. The President has accompanied her statements with tangible measures, such as the seizure of 1,500 kilograms of fentanyl pills in Sinaloa and operations against the sale of illegal Chinese products at Mexico City comercial plaza.
President Claudia Sheinbaum may not wish to reveal all her cards yet or might still be fine-tuning her strategy, but her response to Trump’s threats has mobilized potential allies and offered a narrative that could resonate in the U.S.: Trump needs Mexico to fulfill his promises of protecting jobs, curbing migration, and eliminating the fentanyl trade.
The results of this initial skirmish seem to favor President Sheinbaum, buying her valuable time. However, a more sophisticated and comprehensive plan will be needed to address the challenges posed by the new U.S. administration, and this cannot be executed solely from the National Palace. It will be necessary to venture into U.S. territory, activate allies there, and align Mexico’s interests with those of U.S. stakeholders who can persuade Trump’s administration to view Mexico as a partner rather than an adversary. This approach is something Morena administrations have previously neglected but could prove vital for their survival.
Antonio Ocaranza Fernández, CEO of OCA Reputación and former international press spokesman of the president of Mexico, Ernesto Zedillo
@aocaranza
A Spanish versión of this article can be found in Fortuna.
